TrendForce reports that global AR device shipments are projected to reach 25.5 million units by 2030—with a CAGR of 67% from 2023 to 2030—thanks to product planning by AR brands and the advancement of AI technology and application ecosystems. Among these, the penetration of LEDoS technology is expected to rise significantly, reaching 44% by 2030, making it the mainstream technology in the market.

TrendForce notes that the popularity of AR devices is steadily increasing. In addition to brands like Apple and Meta working on AR projects, Chinese manufacturers are also investing in LEDoS. AR devices have strict requirements when it comes to the size of optical modules, how effectively high-ambient light can penetrate, and the brightness of the display system.

The display architecture of these devices includes two core systems: the optical engine, which determines refresh rate, color, and brightness limits, and the optical system, which controls imaging. Together, these systems influence key performance indicators such as PPD, FOV, and optical efficiency.

LEDoS market share to reach 44% as it surpasses OLEDoS

LEDoS is regarded as an essential technological reserve given its ability to meet certain requirements for AR devices, such as low power consumption, small size, and high brightness. In the short term, this technology is gaining support from brand manufacturers due its advantages in AR displays—as evidenced by the collaboration between Porotech and Foxconn to broaden the technology’s uses.

However, LEDoS currently faces challenges such as improving the luminous efficiency of micro-scale LEDs and achieving full-color displays in very small spaces. Nevertheless, as vertical chip stacking and color conversion technologies mature in the coming years, its penetration rate will continue to rise. TrendForce estimates that LEDoS will have an 18% market share in AR devices in 2024 and grow to 44% by 2030.

TrendForce further points out that, based on current cost structures, market conditions, and technological maturity, OLEDoS is currently the only technology that can be used in both VR/MR and AR devices. OLEDoS, combined with BirdBath optics, is presently the most cost-effective and display-efficient solution. Although OLEDoS resolution is rapidly improving, it still struggles with balancing brightness and color display in AR applications. With its market share expected to be impacted by the rise of LEDoS, OLEDoS’s share in AR devices is projected to decline from 54% in 2024 to 25% by 2030.

Brand investments help LCoS maintain market position

Compared to LEDoS or OLEDoS, LCoS boasts high resolution and brightness, with advantages in production yield and cost. However, the design of the polarization beam-splitting prism in LCoS limits further miniaturization of optical modules, posing a long-term threat of being replaced in the high-end market by the maturing LEDoS. Yet, despite this issue, with continued technological development investments from brands like Meta, LCoS is expected to maintain a certain market share in AR devices. TrendForce forecasts LCoS will have a 12% market share in 2024, growing to approximately 18% by 2030.

TrendForce also mentions that LBS technology, which uses laser light sources with fast response times, is limited by refresh rate and resolution due to its use of rapid raster scanning to continuously display images. Its market share is expected to remain stable at around 10% to 12% from 2024 to 2030. Meanwhile, DLP faces significant challenges in meeting the high-resolution requirements of AR and lacks sufficient support from brand manufacturers, with its market share in AR devices projected to shrink to 1% by 2030.

Author: Eric, Thea / TrendForce

TrendForce 2024 Near-Eye Display Market Trend and Technology Analysis
Release Date:2024 / 07 / 31
Languages:Traditional Chinese / English
Format:PDF
Page:164

Chapter I. Near-Eye Display Development Overview 

• The Birth of AR / VR / MR
• From Reality to Virtuality: The Continuous Spectrum of Virtual and Real Images
• Two Major Meanings of MR in Marketing
• Technical Architecture for Creating XR Experiences
• Holy Grail: “The Whale Moment” of MR
• AR / VR / MR Specification Analysis
• AR / VR / MR Display Technology Roadmap
• AR / VR / MR Market Challenges: High PPI
• Highest Resolution for Eyes is Limited to the Central Area:From the Retina to Fovea
• Foveated Display: Efficient Redistribution of Pixels
• AR / VR / MR Display Challenges: Vergence Accommodation Conflict (VAC)
• Development of VR / MR Device Display Solutions
• Key Indicators for VR / MR : The “Out of Control” Requirements of Resolution
• VR / MR Dilemma: Trade Off between PPD/Thickness and Power Consumption
• Key Indicators for VR / MR Optical Technology: Thickness
• Key Indicators for VR / MR Optical Technology: FOV
• VR / MR Dilemma: Reduced MPRT to Suppress Display Drag
• Pancake Optics Becomes a Must for VR / MR Technology
• Pancake 2.0: Highlights of the Optical Technology
• Pancake 2.0: Thickness Is Further Decreased
• Pancake 2.0: Efficiency Is Further Increased
• VR / MR Optic System Landscape
• VR / MR Displays: LCD vs. OLED
• PPD Competitions for VR / MR Extend from Displays to Systems
• Latency Issues of VST Displays
• Aligning Display Specifications with VR / MR Requirements
• AR Market Challenges- Never Too Small
• AR Market Challenges- Never Too Bright
• Optical System Trend
• Light Engine vs. Optical System
• Optical Analysis Landscape
• Aligning Display Specifications with AR Requirements
• Augmented Reality Display Technology Matrix

Chapter II. Near-Eye Display Market Trend Analysis 

• 2024-2028 NED Market Size Analysis
• 2024-2028 VR / MR Market Size Analysis
• 2024-2028 AR Market Size Analysis
• 2024-2028 VR / MR Market Size Analysis :LCD/OLEDoS
• 2024-2028 AR Market Size Analysis :OLEDoS/LEDoS

Chapter III. Near-Eye Display Technology Overview 
3.1 OLEDoS 

• OLEDoS Basic Process
• OLEDoS Technology Landscape
• OLEDoS: Further Increases in PPI and Brightness
• OLEDoS Analysis: Sony / eMagin / Kopin / RAONTECH
• Al Anode Process as an Alternative to High-Resolution OLEDoS
• Adopting Al Anode May Change Division of Labor in OLEDoS Industry
• Transparent OLEDoS: OLED-on-SOI
• OLEDoS Shifts from AR to VR / MR in 2024

3.2 LEDoS 

• Augmented Reality: LEDoS Manufacturing Process
• LEDoS Technology Portfolio Roadmap
• LEDoS Equipment and Manufacturing Process Upgrades
• Epitaxy: Substrate Materials and Size Options
• Chip: 2D / 3D Structural Analysis
• Chipmaking and Back-end Chipmaking Processes
• ALD Passivation
• Bonding: Temperature, Stress, and Precision are Key Technical Factors
• Bonding: CTE Mismatch
• Bonding: Size Mismatch Problem
• Non-conventional Bonding: LED + Single-substrate Process
• Intrinsic Limitations of LED Light Sources: Light Concentration Challenge
• On-chip Optics: Micro-optics is a New Focus
• Full Color Microdisplay Technologies
• InGaN Red Light Technology
• Red Light Dilemma: InGaN or AlInGaP?ALD Passivation
• InGaN Red LEDoS Are Still Under Development
• Full Color Display: QD Color Conversion Pros and Cons Analysis
• Full-colorization: QDCC To Be Further Advanced by NRET Mechanism
• QDCC Capable of High Resolution Up to 3,000 PPI
• Full Color Display: RGB Vertical Stacking
• Vertical Stacking LEDoS Technology
• Vertical Stacking LEDoS Technology Challenges
• Advantages of Vertical-stacking LEDoS Technology
• Vertically Stacked LED PKG: Commercial Application Aiming at Displays
• Next “Battlefield” for LEDoS Miniaturization: QDCC vs. Vertical Stacking
• Full-colorization: Multiple or One Color Tunable LED
• Wire/Rod LEDoS: An Edge in Efficiency for High PPI Applications
• LEDoS Technology Evaluation for NED
• Wire/Rod LEDoS: Pros and Cons
• LEDoS Microdisplay Key Technology Analysis

3.3 LCD

• Key LCD Technology: Color Sequential
• LCD Key Technology: Mini LED Backlight
• LCD (on Glass) PPI Breakthrough
• LCD (on Glass) High Frame Rate
• LCD Backlight Revolution: Laser
• LCD Backlight Revolution: Laser + HOE
• LCD Technological Development Summary: LCD Potential Fully Release
• LCD Maintain Competitiveness in VR / MR: The Abundant “Arsenal”

3.4 LCoS 

• LCOS: Light Engine Miniaturization
• LCOS: Display Module Size Shrinks to 0.47cc

3.5 DLP 

• DLP Further Advancement: Tilt-and-Roll Pixel (TRP) Technology

3.6 LBS 

• LBS: Ecosystem and Light Engine Miniaturization
• Laser Beam Scanning: Size / Resolution

3.7 OLED 

• Positive Cycle Between OLED and Other Technologies
• Vertical Stacking of OLED Driver Circuits: OLED-on-OS-on-Si

Chapter IV. Industry Layout and Player Dynamic Updates 

• XR Companies M&A Strategies Overview for LEDoS
• Google M&A Strategies (JDC/Raxium)
• Meta M&A Strategies (InfiniLED/MLED)
• Apple M&A Strategies (Luxvue/Tesoro)
• Porotech
• JBD
• Sitan
• Raysolve
• Saphlux
• Mojo Vision
• Ostendo
• LG OLEDoS Advancement History (2021-2024)
• Collaborate to Enter the High-end MR Competition in Businesses
• Apple Vision Pro Display and Optic
• Apple Vision Pro Spillover Effect
• Apple Vision Pro as a Productivity Tool for Consumer Market
• Microdisplay Battle between LCD and OLED: Quest 3 vs. Vision Pro